One of the most enduring summations of the power of the office of the US President comes from eminent political scientist (and former White House advisor) Richard Neustadt. The core of his thesis was, essentially, drawn from the experiences of Presidents Truman (Harry) and Eisenhower (‘Ike’). Truman, ruminating on the future of the office in his last year as President, famously commented that ‘Ike’ would have trouble because banging his fist on the table and ordering people around wouldn’t get anything done, as he would have been used to in the army. Ike found this to be true, suggesting later that he spent most of his time in the White House trying to get people to do what they should have been doing already, without him even mentioning it.
From these anecdotes (and much other evidence) Neustadt claims this:
Presidential power is the power to persuade.
This conception has endured, partly due to its simplicity, but also due to its explanatory power. Reagan, ‘The Great Communicator’, still looms large over US politics. Clinton, a man who is said to have started each conversation by saying ‘I agree with you’ and then proceeding to win you to his point of view, was probably the most successful Democrat since FDR. Ford and Carter, on the other hand, were abject failures. Due to a lack of popular enthusiasm, personal failings, stupid choices (and, admittedly, circumstances beyond their control), they were not persuasive. The President has extraordinary power, yes, but he does not go and physically wield it himself. Neither is he (I say ‘he’ in a historical sense, as unfortunate as that fact is. ‘When Michelle Obama becomes President in 2016…’, as one of my lecturers is fond of saying, then I shall use a gender neutral term. Until then, I think using ‘he’ serves as a stark reminder of how little female representation there is in even the most ‘advanced’ political systems and societies’.) a King, he cannot behead or imprison (generally). He has to persuade, and do it well. He has to convince the public to let him in the place. Congress to pass the laws he wants. His Generals to do and say what he wants them to. His advisors to speak only what he wants, in the way he wants. He wants the best information and the most speedy implementation of his decisions.
Mitt Romney is both a business man and a politician, a former Governor, and likely not a bad one, in the scheme of things. He knows about the persuading subordinates thing, I’m sure of it. But the persuasion a businessman has to do is not like the kind a President does. A great President has the force of the nation behind him, the force of ‘we the people’. It is a legitimacy beyond any other. I am not suggesting that a President needs to have an approval rating of 50% to get anything done. What I mean is that before a President can become one, he must convince people that he can do it.
Mitt and his team don’t appear to believe this, at least at the moment. Essentially, he is doing as little as humanly possible to get elected. We don’t see a different man, full of a different vision for America. I mean, he could be. He isn’t just a slightly greying cutout in a nice suit. He’s highly educated, successful in business and in politics. I’m sure he spends hours thinking and dreaming about what he’d do as President. I bet he’s been thinking about it for years.
But if he has, he doesn’t show it. The most we have heard about his grand plans are only the most basic of sketches. He seems to be banking on Obama losing, rather than himself winning. The strategy is to make the election about Obama, a judgement on the last four years. Voters don’t go into the booth and pick ‘yes’ or ‘no’.
By the same token, Presidents are not elected by default (most of the time…Jimmy Carter I’m looking at you). They have to win. They win battles, arguments and elections. They have to persuade every single pasty little bastard in Washington to go off and do their job, or they fail. Obama is failing pretty badly at convincing Congress to do anything, and it’s hurting his Presidency. But you can be sure he’ll be out there every day trying to persuade the people. He’ll talk until he can’t talk anymore, run ads until he’s out of money, fly and drive all over the country, global warming be damned.
And if he keeps out there, telling a story, about himself, about Mitt and about America, he’ll win. Enough people will be persuaded that the economy will pick up, soon, that universal healthcare will be a magical wonderland. America is on the right path, he just needs some more time and some more cooperation. Obama will tell anyone who will listen that Mitt Romney is just another corporate hack, who will strip away government services to the bone, just to knock down debt. That Mitt doesn’t have any empathy for struggling Americans. It might not make Obama a great President, or even the best man for the job (although I personally think he is), but unless Mitt has a better story, it looks like Obama will win. It doesn’t look like the economy is going to do it for Romney. Unless the Mitt can persuade the enough voters in Ohio and North Carolina and Florida (and the other like, 5 states that will decide the election) that he’s a ‘turn around artist’ (as I’ve heard it said), a brilliant manager, a visionary, a patriot, steeped in values and liberty, the American Dream embedded in his very heart…then he will lose.
And no one will pine for Mitt, because they will never be sure that he could do it anyway.
dahlsr 