No one said democracy is easy. America fought a war of independence and a civil war – the road is almost always long, with violence. Writing off the Arab Spring because of recent events is either madness, or Obama-hate related blindness. It could still fall over – but what is there to lose from trying? How can people who worship domestic liberty yearn for sympathetic dictators?
A few thoughts on the state of the US election:
Clint Eastwood’s 15 minute improv was kinda crazy, kinda funny and kinda bad for Romney – Romney needed to change something at the convention and Eastwood stole a lot of the spotlight.
I though that by picking Paul Ryan as VP, the dynamics of the race would change. But maybe I overestimated the effect that a VP nominee can have – the shape of the race was actually pretty well set before this, only a real change of tack by Romney himself could have been a gamechanger. Even a crazy choice like Palin in 2008 didn’t do a whole lot.
Michelle Obama’s speech was highly impressive – it isn’t out of the realms of possibility that she could run herself one day, and win too. Mind you, wouldn’t it be better if we could have a female candidate that isn’t catapulted into contention through her husbands achievements? (No offence Hillary. I’m not saying that such women are not capable – in fact, that’s the sad thing. They are incredibly capable and its a shame that they need the help.)
Bill Clinton has still got it. In fact, if not for the whole constitution thing, I think by the end of his speech the DNC was ready to drop Obama from the ticket and give Bill another shot. His ability to explain complex things in a simple, believable way – even when he’s making the truth do all kinds of backflips – and in a conversational tone is simply a gift. Few people have the power over an audience like he does and I think such a speech will only further cement his legacy, which has largely recovered from the scandals of his second term.
Obama is doing enough – but there isn’t much more he can do. He hasn’t got a lot of leverage, with the economy the way it is, with the unpopular aspects of his record. So, he’s just working with what he has. 2008 was a one off – no one could do that twice, not in these circumstances. But what he does have isn’t as weak as what many conservative commentators assume. In other words, it isn’t all about the economy (stupid), just somewhat. The economy hasn’t recovered in a blaze of glory, but neither has it tanked. Obama is a good campaigner, with an excellent team. The electoral map helps him too – Romney really has to pull some tough states to win. Many critics like to compare Obama to Carter – but this is wishful thinking at best. And let’s face it, Romney is no Reagan, to put it mildly.
So what now? Well, Obama came out of the conventions with a bounce, while Romney got none. There is still plenty of time, but each day the race stays relatively stable, it gets harder for Romney. Some commentators (in fact, I think even Walter Russell Mead mentioned this! Although, foreign policy academics tend to make terrible domestic commentators, in my experience) are sounding a little desperate, suggesting that Bob Woodward’s new, critical book will hurt Obama. Woodward (of ‘and Bernstein’ Watergate fame) is little better than a hack who got lucky in the 70s and has been dining out on it ever since. I can imagine him, in the White House, eyes darting, or at home, replaying tapes again and again, desperate for that little scrap that no one else heard. His talent is in cherrypicking quotes from often anonymous sources and making a grand narrative around it. He did it to Bush and will probably do the same for the next President.
Anyway, what I am suggesting is that Obama is still in a winning position. I am not as confident as Nate Silver’s famous model (I have a slight feeling that he may overestimated the effects of the bounce. Admittedly this is not based on any data in particular), but at this point, it would seem pretty illogical to bet against it. Maybe the debates will swing things (although this appears unlikely according GWU’s John Sides), maybe Obama will falter in the final stages. I just don’t feel it. In the end, Romney just doesn’t seem good enough.
There is something intrinsically hopeful about US politics. All of the discourse is about the middle class – not because they focus only on the better off, but because everyone either is in, wants to be in, or thinks they are in the middle class. Regardless of the state of the economy, the American Dream isn’t really a home or a job – its something less tangible than that. The dream is really a belief – the future will be better. Fitzgerald both summed it and got it wrong in the Great Gatsby:
‘Tomorrow we will run faster, stretch our arms out farther…And one fine morning–‘
The struggle isn’t as inevitably hopeless as Fitzgerald perceived – America achieves so much because it believes it can. Sure, never lives up to the huge, golden rhetoric – no country ever could. But it doesn’t matter. Because there will be tomorrow.
In Australia, our politicians (for a wealth of reasons) place their focus on, if not the working class, then the ‘battler’. The honorable, hard-working Australian who just wants what is fair. ‘Howard’s battler’s’. ‘Working families’. In this country, those who have outsized dreams are cut down – maybe dreams seem selfish, while the battlers forge on relentlessly? Australia will be a good country, a decent country. To me, it will be a reliable friend; like comfortable clothes or a good day you never remember.
America is a dream – but one that pins your eyes open and pumps through your veins when you feel it, when you understand it. You can fall in love with it and it will tell you that you can be anything.
And like Bill Clinton, it will tell you only a version of the truth. But you will believe, and be better for it.
Risky VP choice – not much bounce.
Convention (and Clint) – not much bounce.
Where is the bounce?
Pray to your crazy Mormon Lord, Mitt. Tell him how you stuck with the stupid name,
Didn’t complain.
Pray to Adam Smith Mitt. It is Adam Smith right?
Mitt?
Who is it Mitt?
This is hopeless,
If there isn’t a reason.
This is more than just another turn around.
More than just a laugh,
From a good looking mouth.
You need to turn it around.
Risky VP choice – not much bounce.
Convention (and Clint) – not much bounce.
Where is the bounce?
Pray to your crazy Mormon Lord, Mitt. Tell him how you stuck with the stupid name,
Didn’t complain.
Pray to Adam Smith Mitt. It is Adam Smith right?
Mitt?
Who is it Mitt?
This is hopeless,
If there isn’t a reason.
This is more than just another turn around.
More than just a laugh,
From a good looking mouth.
You need to turn it around.
dahlsr 