US Election Day – Liveblog

I’ll be updating this page throughout the day for anyone who is interested in coverage that isn’t ABC journos mindlessly speculating for hours and hours.

12:44 pm:
Exit polls (done by asking people who they vote for outside polling booths) can be fairly unreliable at times. It looked like John Kerry was home against George W. Bush at this time of the night (day here obvs) in 2004, and we all know how that turned out. Having said that, the exits have been encouraging for Obama in the key states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

The counting that has been done so far (which isn’t all that much) is pretty much tracking at how the pre-elections were indicating. The biggest worry for those of us who are desperate to know the result is that Florida is genuinely on a knife edge – its possible that this could end up in 2000 territory, when the Supreme Court ended up stopping a recount in that state, effectively giving the election to George W. Bush. The good news is, if the polls are dead on in Ohio, Obama likely wins.

12:58 pm:

I won’t talk all that much about the Senate and House races, a) because nobody really cares that much and b) the results are pretty clear:

The Democrats will most likely still have control of the Senate, although not the filibuster proof super majority of 60 that they had from 2008-2010.

Democrats did have designs taking back the House of Representatives, but it actually looks like the Republicans will pick up a couple of seats, maybe more.

In summation, Government will still be as divided as it was from 2010-2012. Unless Obama and House Republicans can figure out a way to work together more effectively, Americans will still be very frustrated with the progress of legislation.

1:06 pm
With more than half the vote counted in Florida, it is dead even. I mean literally dead even. Late reporting precincts tend to lean Republican there, but way too early to make any prediction. If Obama wins Florida this all over.

1:12 pm

Michigan to Obama. Romney’s dad was Governor there, but the state never really warmed to Mittens. No big surprise.

1:18 pm

US news networks are calling Pennsylvania for Obama. This shouldn’t have been a surprise,  but Romney put in a big last ditch effort there in the last week of the campaign. Remember, just because the networks call it, it doesn’t mean that this is an absolute lock, they have been wrong occasionally in the past (see Florida, 2000).

1:22 pm

Virginia, a key state, is leaning Romney at the moment – still lots of urban areas to be counted yet, however. Ohio early counting looks good for Obama, but only 10% or so counted, a lot of these from cities which (of course) lean Obama. North Carolina is probably closer at the moment than expected, but still leans Romney.

1:37 pm

Florida is still really, really ridiculously close. NY Times is saying its within 2000 votes out of more than 6 million counted so far. If the margin is less than 0.5% then Florida laws requires an automatic recount, so this one might not be known for a while.

Probably more importantly, NBC and Fox News are projecting Wisconsin for Obama. If this the case, Romney must win Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Early counting still very good for Obama. If this holds, Obama wins, even without Florida.

2:10 pm

Richard ‘pregnancy by rape is an act of god’ Mourdock is projected to lose the senate race in Indiana, pretty much because of that comment. Good riddance.

2:13 pm

Add to that Todd ‘women have this crazy thing which means their bodies can terminate pregnancy in case of rape’ Akin – looks like Americans are rejecting this kind of bullshit. Won’t hear this kind of stuff again.

2:17 pm

Obama basically home in New Hampshire. Not a big state, but fewer and fewer options for Romney.

2:25 pm

This won’t be totally clear for another couple of hours yet – but things are looking baaaaad for Romney. Literally everything would have to go his way for him to win. Could happen, of course, but I can’t see it as this point. I’m a have a break from watching twitter and red and blue coloured graphs for a bit. Brain feels fuzzy.

3:20 pm

Well, that escalated quickly. This thing is done. Obama remains the President of the United States of America. The political science geeks called it exactly right. Yay!