The Map

For those who are unaware, to be elected President of the United States, one has to receive at least 270 Electoral College votes. 538 votes are divided among the states on a population basis. California has the most, 55, because it has the most people. If the election were held today, I would suggest the state would be divided up as follows:

Obama: 

Connecticut 7

Maine 4

New Jersey 14

New Mexico 5

Washington 12

Minnesota 10

Oregon 7

California 55

NY 29

Mass. 11

Illinois 20

Delaware 3

Rhode Island 4

Maryland 10

DC 3

Hawaii 4

Vermont 3

201 EC votes

Romney:

Arizona 11

Montana 3

Georgia 16

Indiana 11

Missouri 10

North Dakota 3

South Carolina 9

South Dakota 3

Tennessee 11

Texas 38

Alabama 9

Arkansas 6

Kansas 6

Louisiana 8

Nebraska 5

Utah 6

Alaska 3

Idaho 4

Kentucky 8

Mississippi 6

Oklahoma 7

West Virginia 5

Wyoming 3

191 EC Votes

This leaves 146 votes that I believe still can be won. But if the election were held today, a number of these states appear to be leaning one way or the other.

North Carolina:

Obama won NC in 2008, but only by .33% in an election where he won the popular vote by over 7%. Polling from the past week suggests Romney is up by at least a couple of percentage points. Likely another 15 EC votes for Romney.

Obama 201 – Romney 205

Michigan:

Obama won Michigan by 17 points in 2008. The economy has been tough in Michigan for a long time, but the auto bailout has brought at least some hope. The long decline of American manufacturing may mean less incentive for people to blame Obama directly. Polls say Obama is up pretty comfortably, maybe more than 4 or 5 points. 16 more for Obama.

Obama 217 – Romney 205

Pennsylvania:

A ten point win for Obama in 2008, Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican since 1988, when George Bush Snr. cleaned up Michael Dukkakis (although they do have a Republican Governor). A fair bit of polling has been done here, there has been a bit of variation recently. Still, the overwhelming majority have Obama up, on average by 3 or 4. 20 to Obama.

Obama 237 – Romney 205

Florida:

The closest election of recent times was in 2000 – when a relative handful of voters (and some Supreme Court shenanigans) swung the election Bush’s way. Earlier in the campaign it seemed like Obama was travelling fairly well here. However, with the recent gains Romney has made, Obama will likely be focusing on states much further North. Obama could still pinch it, but recent polling suggests it leans Romney. A very helpful 29 to the Governor.

Obama 237 – Romney 234

Although the outcomes of the states that I just listed are far from certain, if the election were held today, I would be 60 or 70% confident that they would swing the way I just outlined. The next couple of states are somewhat less clear, but I still think it is more likely that not that they will both go to Obama.

Wisconsin:

Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, but it was very close in 2004 and 2008. Romney’s VP nominee Paul Ryan is also a native of the state and has represented its First Congressional District since 1998. The polls are pretty close, but consistently Obama leaning by about 2 or 3 points. 10 to the President.

Obama 247 – Romney 234

Nevada:

Nevada is what is known as a ‘bellwether’ state, having voted for the winning candidate in every election in the last century except 1976. Obama won the state by 12 points last time, but has only a small lead this time. Still, the lead has been more consistent than in some other states (Iowa for example). Another 6 for Obama.

Obama 253 – Romney 234

With five states left to divide up, Romney needs 36 Electoral College votes, Obama just 17. Obama won Iowa (6 votes) by over 9 points in 2008, but polls from the last couple of days show it as absolute line ball. I’d need more polling to come in if I was to make even a tentative prediction. Polling in Virginia (13 votes) is similarly line ball, but only on average. The polls have certainly tightened towards Romney, but there is a real lack of consistency across polling firms. Way too close to call. In New Hampshire (4 votes) a University of New Hampshire yesterday put Obama up by 9 points. This seems like a possible outlier (the result of random variance), but its pretty difficult to tell, New Hampshire is notoriously fickle, both in polling and in election results. If I had to guess I’d say lean Obama, but it hasn’t been polled enough, so who the hell knows. Colorado (9 votes) has proved troublesome for Obama for a while. He really should win it, but again, the polls have been a bit all over the shop.

So, if the race is as it appears (and it stays that way for another two weeks), it all comes down to Ohio (18 votes). If Obama wins Ohio, Romney still has a couple of paths to victory, but they are tough. Out of 6 states that are either dead even , or Obama just leads in (including Nevada and Wisconsin again here), Romney needs to take at least 4, possibly 5. Not impossible, but pretty tough.

If Obama loses Ohio, we have a very different story. This would bring the race to Obama 253 – Romney 252. This might seem like a dead heat, but a closer look at Ohio’s polling number indicates that a loss in Ohio would probably mean a death knell for Obama. Obama looks to have a small lead in Ohio, a point or two above the national polls. For Obama to lose Ohio, there would likely have to be a swing toward Romney nationally. A swing to Romney nationally, to the extent that it wipes out Ohio, would probably also knock off Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, maybe Nevada and Wisconsin too. Without those states, Obama loses.

The race might be just about neck and neck nationally, but Obama still has a small advantage in some key states. If the election were held today, I’d give him maybe a 60 – 65% chance of winning, something like that. But with polling this close, even a small swing could be pivotal. Every little thing counts from now on in. Obama has lost what I would call his ‘soft’ support in the last 3 weeks. He can’t afford to lose any more ground.

US Election – 21 days out

Romney’s debate bump/bounce appears to have halted. Obama has made some very modest gains in the last few days and, with the second debate less than 24 hrs away, the race appears look something 60-40 Obama’s way (I’d cite some polling data, but I just wrote a thesis – you can look it up yourself if interested. Consider this more of a narrative account of the race). Some conservatives appear to be on the point of calling the race for Romney, particularly given another good debate performance. I don’t see it that way. I think some of Obama’s lead was soft, fairly easy to win over. Romney has taken some of these voters, but I’m not sure he has enough, yet. His momentum needs to hold for a little longer. On the other hand, its likely the voters Romney gained are fickle. Many would have supported Obama in 08. Three weeks is long enough to win voters who have only a little interest in politics. Let’s face it, if you haven’t decided by now, you haven’t given it a lot of thought. This election could come down to a percentage point either way in a few key states. Another debate wipeout for Obama may be just enough to tip it to Romney, but it seems unlikely to cause another surge of the magnitude that occurred last week. Obama appears to be leading, just. Ohio is holding on. Buckle up children.

Romney in the Ring

I said a few weeks ago that Romney needed to, basically, stop waiting for job to be given to him and start fighting for it. Well, last Wednesday he did so. Much of the story in the liberal/left media has focused on trying to explain why Obama was so bad. This is understandable. The man conservative commentators are so fond of calling ‘The One’ was awful. But Romney, whatever you think of his actual arguments, was sparkling. He played to the middle and he did so with precision. It was almost like he was attempting to remake himself on stage – ‘look, I know everyone’s been telling you I’m an out of touch, ultra-conservative plutocrat. I know. But I’m not: I’m the man who will make your life better again. Let me tell you how in five easy to digest and nice sounding points…’
‘Mr. President, your response.’
‘Thanks Jim. Blah blah blah, education, blah blah blah, energy, blah blah blah blah’.

Before the debate, I didn’t think it could be a game changer for Romney. Then again, I didn’t think that Obama would put in such an anemic performance. At present, it looks like Romney got a solid bounce. It seems like we are now back to where we were before the Democratic convention. Florida, Colorado and Virginia are all back on knife edge – if more polling of key swing states was available my guess is that you could add Nevada and maybe Wisconsin to that list.

I think there are a number of scenarios as to what will happen next:

1. Romney’s debate bounce has reached its peak – from now until the next debate the race will stabilise at something like 60-40 Obama’s way.

2. The bounce is bigger than is clear from the polls right now – the race inches closer towards being 50-50, maybe 55-45 Obama’s way.

3. The bounce recedes and Obama wins back some of the ground. A strong debate from Biden may help this along just a little. 70-30 Obama.

The debate win gives Romney momentum – but momentum can be given up pretty easily. I would suggest that, in some ways, expectations are now a touch lower for Obama in the next two debates (October 16 and 22). If Obama can win one of these, the media narrative will change to Obama comeback. This might be a good position for him to be in. Obama the 2008 candidate subsisted purely on hope and dreams (and probably coffee). In a poor economy and as the front runner, it’s hard to tell that kind of story. The ‘Audacity of Hope’ (the title of Obama’s second book) means striving for something against the possibility of failure. For the first time in the race, Romney can win. If Obama wants to be more than Jimmy Carter, then this is the time, maybe even more so than in 08, to make his mark.

I will finish with a sentence that could end every piece written on the election so far this year, because, like 2004, this election hinges on almost one thing. Obama leads in Ohio.

Libya

No one said democracy is easy. America fought a war of independence and a civil war – the road is almost always long, with violence. Writing off the Arab Spring because of recent events is either madness, or Obama-hate related blindness. It could still fall over – but what is there to lose from trying? How can people who worship domestic liberty yearn for sympathetic dictators?

Dammit, just tell me already!

A few thoughts on the state of the US election:

Clint Eastwood’s 15 minute improv was kinda crazy, kinda funny and kinda bad for Romney – Romney needed to change something at the convention and Eastwood stole a lot of the spotlight.

I though that by picking Paul Ryan as VP, the dynamics of the race would change. But maybe I overestimated the effect that a VP nominee can have – the shape of the race was actually pretty well set before this, only a real change of tack by Romney himself could have been a gamechanger. Even a crazy choice like Palin in 2008 didn’t do a whole lot.

Michelle Obama’s speech was highly impressive – it isn’t out of the realms of possibility that she could run herself one day, and win too. Mind you, wouldn’t it be better if we could have a female candidate that isn’t catapulted into contention through her husbands achievements? (No offence Hillary. I’m not saying that such women are not capable – in fact, that’s the sad thing. They are incredibly capable and its a shame that they need the help.)

Bill Clinton has still got it. In fact, if not for the whole constitution thing, I think by the end of his speech the DNC was ready to drop Obama from the ticket and give Bill another shot. His ability to explain complex things in a simple, believable way – even when he’s making the truth do all kinds of backflips – and in a conversational tone is simply a gift. Few people have the power over an audience like he does and I think such a speech will only further cement his legacy, which has largely recovered from the scandals of his second term.

Obama is doing enough – but there isn’t much more he can do. He hasn’t got a lot of leverage, with the economy the way it is, with the unpopular aspects of his record. So, he’s just working with what he has. 2008 was a one off – no one could do that twice, not in these circumstances. But what he does have isn’t as weak as what many conservative commentators assume. In other words, it isn’t all about the economy (stupid), just somewhat. The economy hasn’t recovered in a blaze of glory, but neither has it tanked. Obama is a good campaigner, with an excellent team. The electoral map helps him too – Romney really has to pull some tough states to win. Many critics like to compare Obama to Carter – but this is wishful thinking at best. And let’s face it, Romney is no Reagan, to put it mildly.

So what now? Well, Obama came out of the conventions with a bounce, while Romney got none. There is still plenty of time, but each day the race stays relatively stable, it gets harder for Romney. Some commentators (in fact, I think even Walter Russell Mead mentioned this! Although, foreign policy academics tend to make terrible domestic commentators, in my experience) are sounding a little desperate, suggesting that Bob Woodward’s new, critical book will hurt Obama. Woodward (of ‘and Bernstein’ Watergate fame) is little better than a hack who got lucky in the 70s and has been dining out on it ever since. I can imagine him, in the White House, eyes darting, or at home, replaying tapes again and again, desperate for that little scrap that no one else heard. His talent is in cherrypicking quotes from often anonymous sources and making a grand narrative around it. He did it to Bush and will probably do the same for the next President.

Anyway, what I am suggesting is that Obama is still in a winning position. I am not as confident as Nate Silver’s famous model (I have a slight feeling that he may overestimated the effects of the bounce. Admittedly this is not based on any data in particular), but at this point, it would seem pretty illogical to bet against it. Maybe the debates will swing things (although this appears unlikely according GWU’s John Sides), maybe Obama will falter in the final stages. I just don’t feel it. In the end, Romney just doesn’t seem good enough.

The dream, the only dream.

There is something intrinsically hopeful about US politics. All of the discourse is about the middle class – not because they focus only on the better off, but because everyone either is in, wants to be in, or thinks they are in the middle class. Regardless of the state of the economy, the American Dream isn’t really a home or a job – its something less tangible than that. The dream is really a belief – the future will be better. Fitzgerald both summed it and got it wrong in the Great Gatsby:

‘Tomorrow we will run faster, stretch our arms out farther…And one fine morning–‘

The struggle isn’t as inevitably hopeless as Fitzgerald perceived – America achieves so much because it believes it can. Sure, never lives up to the huge, golden rhetoric – no country ever could. But it doesn’t matter. Because there will be tomorrow.

In Australia, our politicians (for a wealth of reasons) place their focus on, if not the working class, then the ‘battler’. The honorable, hard-working Australian who just wants what is fair. ‘Howard’s battler’s’. ‘Working families’. In this country, those who have outsized dreams are cut down – maybe dreams seem selfish, while the battlers forge on relentlessly? Australia will be a good country, a decent country. To me, it will be a reliable friend; like comfortable clothes or a good day you never remember.

America is a dream – but one that pins your eyes open and pumps through your veins when you feel it, when you understand it. You can fall in love with it and it will tell you that you can be anything.

And like Bill Clinton, it will tell you only a version of the truth. But you will believe, and be better for it.

Election

Risky VP choice – not much bounce.

Convention (and Clint) – not much bounce.

Where is the bounce?

Pray to your crazy Mormon Lord, Mitt. Tell him how you stuck with the stupid name,

Didn’t complain.

Pray to Adam Smith Mitt. It is Adam Smith right?

Mitt?

Who is it Mitt?

This is hopeless,

If there isn’t a reason.

This is more than just another turn around.

More than just a laugh,

From a good looking mouth.

You need to turn it around.

Election

Risky VP choice – not much bounce.

Convention (and Clint) – not much bounce.

Where is the bounce?

Pray to your crazy Mormon Lord, Mitt. Tell him how you stuck with the stupid name,

Didn’t complain.

Pray to Adam Smith Mitt. It is Adam Smith right?

Mitt?

Who is it Mitt?

This is hopeless,

If there isn’t a reason.

This is more than just another turn around.

More than just a laugh,

From a good looking mouth.

You need to turn it around.

Tread Carefully, Travis.

Once was a hero

Cast off, forgotten.

Once made little hearts thump

Hair rise on old backs

Under black and white jumpers

lift Lift
LIFTING – a sea up

Tempting it to rage, roar

And ooh and

Ah, so quickly a memory

Body
so bent and broken

Ah, how it was
All speed without limit

Charging across horizons

Stalking, beating and busting

Creating

And then.

Cautious. Where is that edge?

Can’t fall off again.

Wolves closing in.

Bronx cheers, angrily spilling beers.

Feedback, talkback.

Contract.

And then home, not allowed back.

Forgotten, in a box.

And then.

Every so often,
wheeled out.

For sweet smiling applause.

And replaced.

Talk, just talk

A: It’s hard not to be disappointing you know

B: She tried the old ‘it’s not me, it’s you’. That’s my line! So I said, ‘if it’s anyone, it’s me honey.’

A: I hope I’m not disappointing you know, hope I’m not disappointing.

B: Have I been here before? Yeah, last year, in the summer. With Sarah. No, wait. Was that here? Where was that? I wonder if she ever bought that Lexus?

A: I think I’m disappointing. Got a fever, ‘cos I think I’m disappointing.

B: Should I send it back? Would that be okay? Because I can put up with it if it’s not. They say I’m resilient.

A: Got this rage to not be disappointing. Want to scream and run and writhe around and shoot to kill…

B: Yeah I got ‘em in Hong Kong. What a place man, you shoulda been there.

A: Always shoot. To. Kill.

C: Yes. If it takes a thousand hours shredding strips of skin. Yes.